Advances and challenges of operational seasonal prediction in Pacific Island Countries

Advances and challenges of operational seasonal prediction in Pacific Island Countries

Blog Article

Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts play a critical role in building a climate-resilient society in the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) that are highly exposed to high-impact climate events.To assist the PICs National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in generating reliable national climate Cutters - Nail Cutters outlooks, we developed a hybrid seasonal prediction system, the Pacific Island Countries Advanced Seasonal Outlook (PICASO), which has the strengths of both statistical and dynamical systems.PICASO is based on the APEC Climate Center Multi-Model Ensemble (APCC-MME), tailored to generate station-level rainfall forecasts for 49 stations in 13 countries by applying predictor optimization and the large-scale relationship-based Bayesian regression approaches.Overall, performance is improved and further stabilized temporally and spatially relative to not only APCC-MME but also other existing operational prediction systems in V-neck the Pacific.Gaps and challenges in operationalization of the PICASO system and its incorporation into operational climate services in the PICs are discussed.